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From Jay Severin at TheBlaze:
"Five Reasons Why It's President Romney"
(1) Political change happens, but suspension of the laws of gravity
does not. Over a lifetime advising candidates in this country and
abroad, some things have never changed:
-The oldest, most significant question in history of U.S. public
opinion polling: Asked of voters “Is the country on the right or wrong
track?” No incumbent underwater on this question–including very
impressive candidates for dog catcher–gets re-elected. For more than two
years, across the board, voter response to this central question has
consistently been greater than 2 to 1 wrong track.
-”Independents.” Pretend what you wish, independents weren’t born
politically a-sexual. The vast majority of them are, and will vote,
Republican.
-Much like “right/wrong track,” one of the profound metrics or
indicators in a presidential campaign is a president who cannot hit 50
percent approval among voters. Obama has consistently failed to reach 50
percent in over two years. Uh Oh.
-The single-most important signifier in the history of American
campaigns is “Economy/Jobs.” Under Obama, the nation’s performance in
this area sucks. People know it. I can’t promise you Obama can’t get
elected with these numbers, but I can promise you nobody ever has.
(2) Everything we think we “know” about this election is based
exclusively on polls, which despite enjoying the undue respect of the
public are utter sh**. There are maybe five pollsters in America who
could not successfully be sued for malpractice. There is nothing so
common and useless in American media/”politics” than inept polls. Worse,
it is easy and cheap to produce a “poll,” which hustlers and newspapers
(forgive the redundancy), know is obviously inaccurate. Good polls, by
good pollsters, are very difficult to produce ad very expensive.
The New York Times doesn’t want am accurate poll; they want the
cheapest poll they can report by day-after-tomorrow. They do this by
ignoring virtually all the tenets of a good poll in favor of
quick/cheap/bad polls – which have an added advantage for the MSM: they
polls guaranteed to yield liberal results.
Why are these polls inaccurate? Of 100 Americans eligible to vote,
only circa 1/3 of us turn out. So when you talk to non-voters (2/3 of
the sample), you get non-results. But bad pollsters don’t care about
that minor detail! They want a headline.
Most of the bad polls we see today are based on voter turn out models of
2008. Why? There has been a national election since then: 2010.
Difference is Obama voters turned out/won 2008 – Tea Party/Patriots
turned out in 2010.
Bottom line, the majority of polls we see are garbage. Average results of 10 bad polls, know what that yields? One bad average.
The Real polling in this – and every campaign – is being done in
strictest confidence by top pollsters, at a cost of $1Million+ Per
Month! Know what NBC Pays per month for its polling? Same as your
electric bill.
Think that affects quality of results?!
Most polls/pollsters showing Obama ahead are Wrong. Demonstrably
Wrong. Intentional Obama Propaganda. The media won’t report it, because
the media is the culprit. If you want good polls check out Doug Schoen,
Scott Rasmussen, or Pat Caddell.
(3) Watch for the “Silent Majority.” Per Ann Coulter’s latest
blockbuster, “Mugged”, racial politics permeate our politics. Pity. The
major effect it will have on this election is that many people, in my
professional opinion, are intimidated at work, among friends and in
public to express a pro-Romney viewpoint – inasmuch as that equals an
“anti-Obama” viewpoint. Which of course equals a “racist” opinion.
Ask yourself: how many men and women just clam up at work or parties, rather than be labeled ‘racist?’
That is a theory. Until my dear friend Ann Coulter appeared on my
BlazeRadioShow last week and told the story of a man who brought home a
Romney lawn sign, in reaction to which his wife recoiled in horror,
saying “You’re not going to put THAT on our lawn! Everyone will think
we’re Racists!”
No, we’re against Obama, socialism, and for Romney. While we may eschew lawn signs, we do – and will – vote robustly.
(4) “Undecideds.”
-About 10 percent of the electorate who will in the end vote, remain “Undecided.”
-In no national election in recorded US history has an incumbent won
the majority of Undecideds in the final days. If you have an incumbent
president that has already served four years, and now in the heat of an
election you still can’t bring yourself to support him, you are going to
do what late Undecided voters have always done: vote heavily for the
challenger. Mitt will capture 70% of Undecided vote in closing days,
easy.
(5) A greater percent of Romney supporters are going to turn out than
Obama voters. In 2008, there was a gap between Republican and Democrat
voter turn out. In a 4 percent race, that made the difference. In 2012,
there again will be a big turn out gap. This time, it’s ours.
Mister Mentum, first name “Mo,” will amplify this result. MO has,
undeniably, parachuted in again, unannounced but subtle as a mule kick
for one candidate: Romney. In my professional estimation, this was
inevitable – but is tangibly derivative of The ROMNEY-obama debate.
Unaccustomed to being challenged (or correct), President Obama was
absolutely overwhelmed by Romney’s superior knowledge, style and, yes,
truth.
Ask yourself: Do you honestly expect Obama to beat Romney – in two
debates? Me neither. (In fact, if Obama doesn’t absolutely dazzle next
Tuesday night, most voters who watch Debates won’t bother to watch 3rd
contest.)
As of several days ago, unless Obama changes the fundamental dynamic
of this campaign, “On Any Given Tuesday” – he loses this election. Look
at the size/enthusiasm of the candidate crowds over the past 10 days.
This is a reaction to the profound difference between a wasted, libelous
$100Million Obama TV Ad brutalization of Romney as a Monster.
Guess what? Voters suddenly saw and intuitively embraced the real
Mitt Romney – the difference between Obama Night and Romney Daylight.
Remember the old electric Obama pre-election magic?
“Under new management.”
As will be the United States of America, in roughly two weeks.
